Sunday, February 26, 2012

Oscars Analysis 2011: Prediction roundup

Sobering note: In the extraordinarily unlikely scenario in which all of my predictions are accurate, then the actual Oscar winner will match up with my chosen winner in only seven categories. But I can hardly expect the Academy's collective taste to match with my own personal preferences, so perhaps it isn't all that sobering. Besides, if they agreed with me all the time, then I'd have nothing to complain about.

In any event, here you have it: the Manifesto's complete 2011 Oscar predictions, condensed into a single post for maximum convenience. Predictions are listed in order from least confident to most confident (as always, I'm omitting the shorts).


Best Costume Design
Will win: Hugo (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Anonymous
Worst snub: Mysteries of Lisbon

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Margin Call – J.C. Chandor
Worst snub: Rango – John Logan

Best Sound Editing
Will win: Hugo (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Worst snub: Rango

Best Sound Mixing
Will win: War Horse (confidence: 1/5)
Should win: Transformers: Dark of the Moon
Worst snub: Super 8

Best Cinematography
Will win: The Tree of Life – Emmanuel Lubezki (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: War Horse – Janusz Kaminski
Worst snub: Mysteries of Lisbon – André Szankowski

Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory (confidence: 2/5)
Should win/worst snub: [abstain]

Best Film Editing
Will win: The Artist – Anne-Sophie Bion (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall
Worst snub: Martha Marcy May Marlene – Zachary Stuart-Pontier

Best Visual Effects
Will win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes (confidence: 2/5)
Should win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Worst snub: Green Lantern

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Descendants – Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: The Descendants – Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash
Worst snub: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 – Steve Kloves

Best Actor
Will win: Jean Dujardin – The Artist (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: George Clooney – The Descendants
Worst snub: Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

Best Actress
Will win: Viola Davis – The Help (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Worst snub: Keira Knightley – A Dangerous Method

Best Art Direction
Will win: Hugo (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Worst snub: Anonymous

Best Foreign Language Film
Will win: A Separation (Iran) (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: [abstain]
Worst snub: The Skin I Live In (Spain)

Best Original Song
Will win: The Muppets – "Man or Muppet" (confidence: 3/5)
Should win: The Muppets – "Man or Muppet"
Worst snub: Win Win – "Think You Can Wait" (The National)

Best Makeup
Will win: The Iron Lady (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The Iron Lady
Worst snub: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Original Score
Will win: The Artist – Ludovic Bource (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The Artist – Ludovic Bource
Worst snub: Rango – Hans Zimmer

Best Picture
Will win: The Artist (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: The Descendants
Worst snub: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Octavia Spencer – The Help (confidence: 4/5)
Should win: Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Worst snub: Shailene Woodley – The Descendants

Best Animated Feature
Will win: Rango (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Rango
Worst snub: The Adventures of Tintin

Best Director
Will win: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist
Worst snub: Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Christopher Plummer – Beginners (confidence: 5/5)
Should win: Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Worst snub: Albert Brooks – Drive


Till next year.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mysteries of Lisbon was one of the best films of 2011. I'm surprised it didn't even get a nom for best foreign film

Jeremy said...

I agree -- it wound up ranking #12 on my year-end list, just two slots below "A Separation". However, it strangely didn't even have a chance, as Portugal submitted a different candidate instead ("José and Pilar," which I've admittedly never seen).

Check back soon for my predictions for the 2012 nominations.